"It is not only the government sector that needs to repair its balance sheet in the Euro-zone’s peripheral economies. The private sector too has increased its leverage significantly over the past ten years, and now also needs to tighten its belt. The good news is that this process has, to varying degrees, already started: the private sector is now reporting positive savings in Greece, Spain and Italy—but deleveraging has not yet really started in Portugal.
At this stage, it is not clear how far the de-leveraging still has to go. Using the stabilisation of the net foreign asset position as a possible signpost, it would appear that still more needs to be done. However, if we assume that stabilisation should be reached by 2011, and further assume that governments will meet their deficit targets, then the overall amount of additional private-sector savings would be around 2%-3% of GDP for Greece, Spain and Italy. The adjustment in Portugal looks a lot more challenging, and could be as high as 10% of GDP."
Obrigado. Tentarei arranjar tempo hoje para escrever sobre o relatório da Goldman Sachs, que estou ainda a ler na íntegra, pois um generoso leitor teve a gentileza de mo enviar.
Ontem, no Insurgente, destacava-se um excerto que me parece de sublinhar: «“…when you bring on a professor and when you bring a politician, they’re unaccountable. If [professor] Jeffrey [Sachs] is wrong he will survive in tenure. If I’m wrong, I’ll go bankrupt. Who do you want to bet with?” »
O Cachimbo de Magritte é um blogue de comentário político. Ocasionalmente, trata também de coisas sérias.
Sabe que a realidade nem sempre é o que parece.
Não tem uma ideologia e desconfia de ideologias.
Prefere Burke à burqa e Aron aos arianos.
Acredita que Portugal é uma teimosia viável e o 11 de Setembro uma vasta conspiração para Mário Soares aparecer na RTP.
Não quer o poder, mas já está por tudo.
Fuma-se devagar e, ao contrário do que diz o Estado, não provoca impotência.
3 comentários:
Dirk Shumacher, Goldman Sachs
"It is not only the government sector that needs to repair its balance sheet in the Euro-zone’s peripheral economies.
The private sector too has increased its leverage significantly over the past ten years, and now also needs to tighten
its belt. The good news is that this process has, to varying degrees, already started: the private sector is now
reporting positive savings in Greece, Spain and Italy—but deleveraging has not yet really started in Portugal.
At this stage, it is not clear how far the de-leveraging still has to go. Using the stabilisation of the net foreign asset
position as a possible signpost, it would appear that still more needs to be done. However, if we assume that
stabilisation should be reached by 2011, and further assume that governments will meet their deficit targets, then
the overall amount of additional private-sector savings would be around 2%-3% of GDP for Greece, Spain and
Italy. The adjustment in Portugal looks a lot more challenging, and could be as high as 10% of GDP."
Obrigado. Tentarei arranjar tempo hoje para escrever sobre o relatório da Goldman Sachs, que estou ainda a ler na íntegra, pois um generoso leitor teve a gentileza de mo enviar.
Ontem, no Insurgente, destacava-se um excerto que me parece de sublinhar: «“…when you bring on a professor and when you bring a politician, they’re unaccountable. If [professor] Jeffrey [Sachs] is wrong he will survive in tenure. If I’m wrong, I’ll go bankrupt. Who do you want to bet with?” »
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