John McCormack no blog da Weekly Standard
In his New York Times column, Bill Kristol takes a look at McCain Chances:
What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as “bitter.” One of Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist. Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.
Ed Morrissey notes that the last batch of battleground polls from Rasmussen now shows the race essentially tied in Ohio and Florida as well as North Carolina and Missouri, while McCain trails Obama by four points in Colorado and Virginia:
* Colorado - Obama leads 51/47, after last week’s 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
* Florida - McCain lead 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
In his New York Times column, Bill Kristol takes a look at McCain Chances:
What if the polls, for various reasons, are overstating Obama’s support by a couple points? And what if the late deciders break overwhelmingly against Obama, as they did in the Democratic primaries? McCain could then thread the Electoral College needle.
McCain would have to win every state where he now leads or is effectively even in the polls (including North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri). He’d have to take Florida and Ohio, where he’s about four points down but where operatives on the ground give him a pretty good shot. That gets him to 247 of the 270 votes needed.
McCain’s path to victory is then to snatch Pennsylvania (which gets him to 268), and win either Virginia, Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico (states where he trails by about four to seven points) — or New Hampshire, where he’s 10 points behind but twice won dramatic primary victories.
As for Pennsylvania, two recent polls have McCain closing to within four points. Pennsylvania is the state whose small-town residents were famously patronized by Obama as “bitter.” One of Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressmen, John Murtha, recently accused many of his western Pennsylvania constituents of being racist. Perhaps Pennsylvanians will want to send a little message to the Democratic Party. And that could tip the election to McCain.
It’s an inside straight. But I’ve seen gamblers draw them.
Ed Morrissey notes that the last batch of battleground polls from Rasmussen now shows the race essentially tied in Ohio and Florida as well as North Carolina and Missouri, while McCain trails Obama by four points in Colorado and Virginia:
* Colorado - Obama leads 51/47, after last week’s 50/46. Within the MOE, but not much movement.
* Florida - McCain lead 50/49, after trailing 51/47 last week. Definitely moving towards McCain.
* Missouri - Dead heat at 49 all, after Obama led 48/47 last week. Movement to McCain.
* North Carolina - McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
* Ohio - Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
* Virginia - Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
An alternative path to victory for McCain without Pennsylvania is to win all of the states listed above plus Nevada. During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton did 3 points better on election day than she did in the final Real Clear Politics averages of polls for Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's possible that McCain might outperform the polls in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada by four or five points.
And, of course, McCain would only need one of those three states if he pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, where he's currently trailing by 7.6 points according to RCP. But remember that Hillary Clinton was down by 8 points in New Hampshire before she eked out a dramatic 2 point win in the Democratic primary.
The race isn't over. Go vote.
* North Carolina - McCain 50/49, after being up 49/48 last week.
* Ohio - Tied at 49, after Obama led 49/45 last week. Movement to McCain.
* Virginia - Obama leads 51/47, same as last week.
An alternative path to victory for McCain without Pennsylvania is to win all of the states listed above plus Nevada. During the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton did 3 points better on election day than she did in the final Real Clear Politics averages of polls for Ohio and Pennsylvania. It's possible that McCain might outperform the polls in Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada by four or five points.
And, of course, McCain would only need one of those three states if he pulls off an upset in Pennsylvania, where he's currently trailing by 7.6 points according to RCP. But remember that Hillary Clinton was down by 8 points in New Hampshire before she eked out a dramatic 2 point win in the Democratic primary.
The race isn't over. Go vote.
9 comentários:
Já só faltam umas horitas para terminar o longo e penoso 11 de Setembro.
Viva o dia 12!
Uma palavra de simpatia para o mccain, que demontrou nestes últimos dias não ser um verdadeiro labrego como o filho do pior presidente, que conseguiu ser pior que o pai.
Mas o dia 12 surge com uma grande crise, não sei se Obama, mesmo com toda a força e empolgamento que consegue transmitar, será capaz de dar a volta (isto não está para salvadores)
E a Sara Palin zero de cérebro, vai estar à espreita... E tenho a impressão que se tudo correr mal, essa senhora possa mesmo acabar com este mundo (deus queira que o mundo acabe com ela antes disso)
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/11/03/karl_rove_predicts_obama_blowo.html
Ó anónimo, TU É QUE ÉS UM LABREGO! que nem sequer tem a coragem para assinar os comentários que fazes. Quanto ao ZERO DE CÉREBRO, deves estar a pensar no Obama quando andava a rezar ao mesmo tempo que ouvia o Rev. Wright dizer aquelas coisas inqualificáveis de que ninguém já se quer lembrar. Deus queira é que não seja o Obama a fazer este mundo dar um passo atrás de todo o tamanho.
Miguel Maria
O Miguel Maria é um pseudnimo do Nuno Lobo?
o bom anónimo, não se deixa apanhar; o miguel maria pode sempre pôr um lençol na cabeça e escrutinar dois buraquinhos. Se quiser ver, veja a barbaridade que o retardado g.w.bush fez ao seu próprio país; se não quiser não veja.
Não tenho a minima dúvida que o sr. mccain, que se surpreendeu pela positiva, iria ser bem melhor presidente do que o maior escândalo da economia e da política internacional.
Mas, parece-me que a sua fiel seguidora é termos de braindead é a bela Palin (que bem que ele fica em pornos).
Mas pronto Miguel Maria, se quiserem continuar a bombardear países porque sim, ou vender armas a crianças, não se admirem de levar com mais uns aviõezinhos na cabecinha, que sinceramente, e não querendo parecer bruto, bem merecem...
dá beijinho ao barack hussein, o teu novo presidente que isso passa, bébé...
Os apoiantes de Obama no seu melhor registo:
"um verdadeiro labrego como o filho do pior presidente, que conseguiu ser pior que o pai"
"pode sempre pôr um lençol na cabeça e escrutinar dois buraquinhos"
"a bela Palin (que bem que ele fica em pornos)"
"não se admirem de levar com mais uns aviõezinhos na cabecinha, que sinceramente, e não querendo parecer bruto, bem merecem..."
Roteiro da desgraça:
Terminam hoje 8 anos de Bush, o tal que este blogue acha especial. E o balanço, no final de dois mandatos, não podia ser mais positivo:
- o mundo vive uma época de prosperidade económica nunca antes atingida;
- o mundo, especialmente os USA e o BNP, vivem uma época de prosperidade financeira nunca antes atingida;
- o mundo está mais seguro do que nunca;
- o Iraque é uma próspera e pacifica democracia;
- o Bin Laden está preso e vai ser julgado em Dallas, pelo Tribunal Internacional do Texas (Jack);
- o Afeganistão é uma próspera e pacifica democracia;
- a guerra no Iraque foi uma vitória rápida e eficaz das gloriosas forças militares do eixo USA/GB (leia-se, Tony);
- nos USA, todos os cidadãos têm acesso à saúde, excepto os que não têm;
- nas celas de Guantanamo foram distribuidos calendários grátis da Playboy, do ano de 1962;
- o Cachimbo de Magritte foi encerrado por falta de conteúdos;
- Sara Palin era, afinal, um talibã trans sexual;
- a gravidez da criança Palin, afinal, uma brincadeira aos médicos, com uma almofada da Barbie.
Que viva o camarada Bush por longos e longos anos. Viva Pedro Picoito!
Perdão: e que viva, também, muitos e muitos anos o camarada Nuno Lobo!
E agora Sr.Nuno Lobo após a vitória de Obama o que se lhe oferece dizer aos seus estimados leitores?
P.S. já agora qual é a sua formação académica?
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